PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures): the Fed's preferred inflation gauge
Updated 2026-09-20
What the PCE index is, why the Fed looks at core PCE, when it's released and how it compares with the CPI.
What it is
The PCE price index measures the change in the prices of household consumption and is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, usually toward the end of the month at 8:30 New York time. Core PCE, excluding energy and food, is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve treats as its reference.
Differences from the CPI
The PCE basket is wider and weights change over time with spending habits. In general PCE grows a little less than CPI. Because the CPI comes out first, the market often already has a good estimate of the PCE when it's released.
How the market uses it
It confirms or contradicts the inflation picture and expectations for Fed rates. Surprises in core PCE can move the dollar, yields, gold and indices, but usually less than the CPI because they're partly anticipated.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the Fed prefer the PCE?
Because the basket is wider and adapts to changes in spending habits, so it better represents real consumption.
Times and forecasts in the economic calendar
Check the calendar for the exact time, the forecast and the actual figure as soon as it is published.
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Educational content, not financial advice. Trading involves risk.